Model description

Introduction

Download this excel file, enable macros and and press the button with the World Cup Logo.

You can customize the model on your own "beliefs" or assumptions, just go to the first sheet of the excel file and change the values in column "E".

For better explanations (in italian ) follow this link (www.tomade.it).

Note for OpenOffice users: just run the macro named "principale" and wait some seconds.

How does it work?

This model (the 2010 World Cup Simulator, or WCS) is a simple Montecarlo simulator which starts from a qualitative, synthetic characterizetion of teams' skills allowing for some stochastic (deterministically impredictable) effects. You can download and try, modify and distribute, but all that is to be done according to the rules printed at the bottom of this page. Thanks in advance, and have fun.

And the winner is

This model is going to give different scenarios (id est, different winners) at every run: it is because it simulates the World Cup adding a bit of randomness, just to take into some account uncertainty. Please refer to Nassim Nicholas Taleb for a wiser insight on the subject (we don't mean football).

If you take all that too seriously, we are really sorry, but you're probably missing the point of this "tool": it was made for fun, ours as well as yours.

If you still want to make bets and all you get is loosing money and increasing frustration and will of revenge and finally sue us for providing this model... well, stop now. Close the browser and go away, just as you would if we asked you to share your wins with us. The World Cup Simulator is given for free and without any warranty. In Italy this would be unnecessary, but since we are writing these lines in english it is probably better to conform to the anglo-american legal habits. So before using the World Cup Simulator please read and accept our disclaimer.